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  1. #1
    Captain EchIII's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    65 Post(s)

    [In Progress] Understanding Overkill: Requires Formatting

    Let's try this exercise: Your enemy is a Flagship-Ta Class at the very pesky J node of 4-3, line ahead, parallel engagement, her firepower is therefore 130. (seriously, has anything good ever come from facing a Ta-Flag?)

    Assuming that the enemy shot hits, sort the following ships in increasing probability of being taken to red in one shot by her shelling, assume a critical hit rate of 20%.

    Hiei Kai Ni (83HP, 95 Armor)
    Musashi Kai(97/119)
    Akatsuki Kai Ni (31/50)
    Kuma Kai (42/69)
    Choukai Kai Ni (57/78)

    I know what you're thinking, "Obviously it's Akatsuki, Kuma, Choukai, Hiei, Musashi", clearly it runs from DD, to CL, to CA, to FBB, and finally the superheavy, shouldn't it?

    Well, despite common sense dictating that that would be the case, you'd be wrong. The ship most likely to be knocked down to red in one hit is Choukai, followed by, then Kuma, then Akatsuki, followed by Hiei and Musashi. At first glance, this makes absolutely no sense, Choukai is completely superior to Kuma, and Kuma is completely superior to Akatsuki, surely one of the best-protected cruisers would fare better than the tin foil destroyer?

    The reason for this counter-intuitive result is the mechanism known as overkill protection. Which runs: Whenever a ship takes a shot that would deal more than its maximum HP, she will instead sustain a random amount of between 50%-79% of her HP in damage. Critically, only the 75-79% portion of this range results in a taiha, which is effectively a 1/6 chance.

    In other words, a ship stands a better chance of surviving being hit for 200% of its HP than a hit for 80% of her HP.

    The reason Akatsuki survives more than Choukai is because she turns every shot into an Overkill roll and this has a 1/6 chance total to survive at orange; while Choukai has a much higher chance for being hit for 75-99% of her HP (which is NOT covered by overkill protection) and being knocked to red outright without the benefit of overkill protection.

    Looking at the diagram, you can see that Choukai being hit by the Ta-Flag causes her remaining HP to be between 27 and -21 (which would trigger an overkill roll), this range spans 50 possible values, and more importantly, spans the 14-1 taiha range.

    Let's see how this runs: Of the 50 possible outcomes:

    15-27 = 13 possible Orange or Yellow values
    14-1 = 15 possible Red values
    0 to -21 = 22 possible values, with a 1/6 Chance of red.

    Adding it up, Choukai has about a (15/50)+[(22/6)/50] = ~37% chance of being Taiha'd by the Ta.

    Choukai therefore has about a 30% chance of being taiha'd by a noncrit (any value from 14-1 is an instared, and a 1/6 chance of being taiha'd 44% of the time, which works out to just over 7%. This gives Choukai a 37% chance of being taiha'd from the Ta upon a noncrit hit.

    Amazingly enough, she would have a better chance against a critical hit from the Ta, which would trigger overkill protection and thus have only a 1/6 chance of causing her to go red.

    To make matters worse for Choukai, Akatsuki has higher evasion as well, so not only does Akatsuki have a better chance of surviving a hit, but also a better chance of dodging the shot to begin with!

    Think of Choukai as the unfortunate worker who earns too much to qualify for welfare (overkill protection), but who doesn't earn enough to make up for it.

    Of course, while this makes cruisers sound like a really bad idea, it's not all good for the Battleships too, as we'll see in a bit....

    So what does this all mean?

    1. Don't be scared of line ahead, line abreast can be just as dangerous, as can red-t

    Here's the thing: People instinctively think line ahead as an offensive formation, and line abreast as gimping firepower for ASW ability. Yet from this, we now know that shots which sneak in under the maximum HP are the most risky ones for ships to take.

    Red-T likewise can turn a 1/6 RNG protection roll into a surefire retreat.

    2. And yet the reverse can be true for submarines too!

    Let's face it, a DD armed with sonars is going to overkill a submarine most of the time upon a hit.

    Imuya and Maruyu in particular cannot be oneshot on an overkill roll because they do NOT have a HP value between 75 and 79% of their HP, Imuya taihas after losing 12HP, which is 80% of her health, she therefore cannot be taiha'd in a single shot, neither can Maruyu who's only at risk at 1. Notice that the other submarines

    So how do we work out what poses the greatest threat to our ships? It's simple: Look for enemies that are capable of dealing damage within that critical 75-99% range exactly. Here are some general rules.

    For your DDs which usually come in at around the 30 HP, 49 armor region for a total of 79 combined, the greatest threat are enemies which deal just about that or slightly under, late model destroyers, CLs, CAs, and in particular, CL and CA closing torpedoes (LMDD closing torpedoes are too strong). This is especially relevant when fielding torpedo squadrons or carrier groups, destroyers will find it difficult if not impossible to disable CLs or CAs, and are at a far greater risk of a taiha by a 77 damage torpedo from a Ho-Flag CL, enemy CA shelling too is extremely dangerous, the Ri-elite and flag hits for 74 and 84, bracketing that all-important overkill region.

    With regard to CLs, the situation is very much the same, they tend to average about 115 combined armor and HP (usually about 45ish HP and 69 armor), so while they're generally safe against enemy DD shelling, they are VERY vulnerable to Late Model DD torpedoes which often sneak in at about 100 power. Interestingly enough, they're surprisingly resilient against most enemy CAs except on low armor rolls, stuff like Wos pose quite a threat to them, but then again, Wos do everything.

    CAs are the interesting one in this list, something like 57+78 puts them at a combined 135 health and armor. Uh oh.... we've already seen what happened to Choukai. 135 combined is a VERY dangerous number to be at, Ru and Ta-flag are at 135 and 130 exactly, a Re shells for 122 (though CAs will likely never face Re-chan) Wo-Flag hits for 111, many more CL and enemy CA crits fall into the dangerous 135 region, Ri-Flag at 84 firepower poses a significant threat on a critical hit. Yeah, it's a tough life for cruisers.

    Last come the battleships, and we have two main groups, the Battlecruisers and the heavy BBs. The Fusous have ~77/91 for 168 combined, the Kongou sisters have about 175 combined, with Hiei being the heaviest at 83/95, give or take, while the heavier ones like Italia have about 184 (92/92), Nagato has 188 (90+98) Musashi has 216 combined (97+119). Obviously, nothing smaller than a CA is oneshotting them in the day.

    But you might notice something here: These are all above the day firepower cap, a hit coming in at 150 is going to hit them down to about their (combined - 150), for the Kongous, this means about 25HP, dangerously close to their taiha point of about 20, enemies who can deal slightly over 150 post a HUGE threat to them.

    Guess who? Yup, Black Wock Wape Time, BWS hits for 156 (right in the HIEIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII zone), Hiei has a massive one-in-three chance of being taihad instantly by Black Wock, her sisters face a similar threat.

    They face the greatest danger from critical hits from enemies who can sneak into the 160-170 range with critical hits, this means enemy BBs and some CAs. Of course heavy ships will also be able to eliminate threats better, but it's something important to understand.

    Do tell me if you enjoyed this little article on advanced game mechanics, and write in your suggestions for more of these!
    夏 '15 : BBBCCBC | 秋 '15: AABBA | 冬16: AAA | 春 '16: AAAAAAC

  2. #2
    Commander Seelegewehr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    3 Post(s)
    Whenever a ship takes a shot that would deal more than its maximum HP, she will instead sustain a random amount of between 50%-79% of her HP in damage.
    It's based on current HP, not maximum. Maximum would lead to bizarre cases when, say, a girl at 15/31 HP gets hit for 25 damage.



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